BULLETIN
HURRICANE MILTON ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 10 2024
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE CONTINUE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...29.1N 78.5W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA
COUNTY LINE HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BIMINI.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA, INCLUDING THE
ST. JOHNS RIVER
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
* EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, INCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND
THE ABACOS
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. MILTON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, WITH THAT MOTION FORECAST
TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF MILTON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND PASS NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MILTON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL STORM
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES (500 KM). A SUSTAINED WIND OF 39 MPH (63 KM/H) AND A GUST
TO 44 MPH (71 KM/H) WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB (29.03 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR MILTON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT44 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT4.SHTML
STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD
REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED
AREAS IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE, FL TO ALTAMAHA SOUND, GA...3-5 FT
SEBASTIAN INLET, FL TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE, FL...2-4 FT
ST. JOHNS RIVER...2-4 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE
INUNDATION, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM
SURGE GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.
RAINFALL: ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY. IN THE WAKE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MILTON, THE RISK OF CONSIDERABLE URBAN
FLOODING WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS ONGOING AND FORECAST
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE MILTON, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RAINQPF AND THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?ERO.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREAS IN FLORIDA, GEORGIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, AND THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY MILTON ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.
$$
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